Joint ACI World-ICAO Passenger Traffic Report, Trends, and Outlook

Airports Council International (ACI) World and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) have released a joint Passenger Traffic Report, Trends, and Outlook offering insights into the evolving air transport landscape.
Key highlights:
- In 2024, global passenger traffic is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels, reaching 9.5 billion passengers(104% of 2019 levels). Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) are expected to reach 8.8 trillion (101% of 2019 levels).
- By 2030, global passenger traffic is forecast to exceed 12 billion, driven by growth in international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions.
- By 2042, global passenger traffic is projected to reach 19.5 billion, representing a twofold increase compared to the levels recorded in 2024.
- By 2050, global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% to reach 244% of 2019 levels, driven by strong growth in emerging markets. RPK are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2%, reaching 284% of 2019 levels by 2050.
- In 2023, the largest passenger markets were the United States, China, India, and Spain. By 2042, emerging markets like Indonesia and Thailand are expected to enter the top 10. By 2052, the largest markets will include China, the United States, India, and Indonesia.
- By 2052, domestic routes in China/Mongolia, North America, and Southwest Asia, along with long-haul connections between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe will dominate the top 20 global routes, reflecting the growing influence of Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern markets in global air travel.
Retrospective analysis: COVID-19 impact and recovery
Since March 2020, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic, daily life across the globe has been significantly impacted. The crisis led to severe consequences for the global economy, trade, and mobility.
At the onset of the pandemic, prior to the widespread distribution of vaccines, the aviation industry faced an unprecedented reduction in passenger numbers, with a decline of 5.5 billion passengers (ACI World) [1] and 5.8 trillion Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) (ICAO) [2] in 2020 due to travel restrictions and lockdowns. This represented a 61% drop in global passenger traffic and a 66% decline in global RPK, compared to 2019.
Additionally, the global economy encountered a new array of challenges, from geopolitical conflicts to disruptions in global supply chains. These risks led to significant price increases in various sectors, including food and energy. The rise in costs prompted a tightening of global monetary policies, with central banks raising interest rates to curb inflation. This, in turn, led to a decline in economic activity and consumer confidence.
The aviation industry is closely linked to macroeconomic factors. The impact of rising prices and disposable income remains a critical determinant of air transport demand. Additionally, the industry faced pressures from rising costs and a tight labor market, creating uncertainty during the recovery period.